It seems to me the P/E is more like 8 right now. The last four
quarters' earnings add up to 1.86, essentially flat from the preceding
four quarters. This flatness, on the heels of their first quarter
with negative earnings growth last spring, is causing the doldrums
in the stock.
Zacks predicts next year's earnings of 2.14, suggesting an earnings
growth rate of 15% from 98 to 99, with earnings the following year
of 2.80, suggesting an earnings growth rate of 35% from 99 to '00.
But these numbers merely reflect the guesswork of the chaps at
Hummingbird, who have no better idea than we do whether they can
make the transition to Business Intelligence from X Windows. (Well,
maybe a better idea, but they're biased.)
For me, it's still worth a shot. I've dumped a couple of stocks in
the low single digits that I paid in the teens for, when I realized
there was no hope. (There was no hope because they didn't make
a transition from the connectivity business to something else.)
Here I think there's still hope, based on my respect for the people
at Hummingbird, and at these multiples I'm holding on. (Though I'll
probably unload some at the first sign of an uptick.)
How do other people feel about these Zacks numbers? Have they been
updated recently? Do they mean anything? |
