anyone else think INTC is a good short here?
Uncle Frank: the chart pattern is clear, if you look at a chart of the last 2 years: extended trading range of about 70-90. The stock has poked its head above and below that range, briefly, several times, and those have always turned out to be good selling (above 85 or 90), or buying (below 75 or 70) times. One of the basic rules of TA is that the longer a pattern lasts, the more reliable it is.
Since early June, we've moved from the lower to the upper extreme of the trading range. Someday, we're going to break out of this range, and make a major X3 1996-style move up. But this might not happen till after the next recession, when Merced is a reality, and after the wave of global de-leveraging has run its course (no, it ain't over yet, Latin America still has to go the way of Malaysia).
Actually, I'm not shorting INTC, but only because the semi-equips are much better put candidates. More volatile, worse outlook.
I just post these things to tweak the permabulls who live here. I'll repost it, with all the rude replies, when I buy back at 70.
|
