Well, I had a big rant done, tried to post it and it got eaten by SI's server breakdown today. So I gave up in a sulk and went to golf! In brief, GSM is getting better, but there is an olde Englishe saying = "You can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear". Anything GSM can do, CDMA can do better.
Yes, Northforce, it included a double your money back guarantee for $80 by end of October [or November if necessary]. Send risk managment premiums to my previously advised address in Eketahuna. I promise not to skip town.
Where are Naples and Jupiter? People live there? I thought they are in Italy and near Uranus.
PREDICTION FOR EARNINGS
Not spreadsheetable, but here goes [justified in the same way that Kasparov doesn't use a spreadsheet but still does okay - Deep Blue notwithstanding].
Things are going really well. Leap is out of the way. NextWave too. QCP820 failures and Q plastic housings gone. Korean woes well gone and sales going mad over there. General realization that over 20m CDMA sales will have been made by year end, so the last quarter has seen substantially higher than expected handset sales giving royalties and margins on in-house production. Japan turned on this quarter and handsets rolling out. Omnitracs growth continuing unabated and diversifying. Infrastructure passed breakeven and direct sales now underway. Infrastructure royalties increasing as rollouts increase from Lucent, Samsung and co. You've seen the figures from Korea for royalties. WLL sales getting going quite well, direct and royalty bearing. Eudora hanging in there, covering costs and preparing for pdQ environment. ASIC sales high and growing fast with no competition - Motorola having packed it in and Nokia packing a SAD. A near disaster on bidding for Brazilian privatisation [or was it spectrum?] was narrowly escaped, which at least shows luck is holding. Not so lucky on a muck up in Australia which cost some millions I believe. But all in all, no big messes to clean up.
Administration, marketing, research and development costs will be stabilizing and reducing as a % of revenue. There is still the same board, management etc, offices have been established some time ago etc, so cost increases are incremental rather than "punctuated equilibrium". Growth from 500 to 10,000 staff was very very fast. Now relatively stable while revenue is rolling in.
There is incentive to show steady profit growth, maybe even a bit of eyebrow raising and eye opening to put QUALCOMM on the investment map. Not a silly blowout which might set up unreasonable expectations in future, but just a good jolt to the bearish and naysayers. There has been some stability and ability to control costs now that extremely rapid staff growth has levelled off a bit.
QUALCOMM is still not at the "blow their socks off" stage of growth with huge demand like Nokia. Don't make silly comparisons about this Tero - GSM has been around a while and there is a huge demand to feed and Nokia has been excellent. cdmaOne is not yet at that level, so it's early days. Wait a year or two. Be afraid? Are you kidding? GSM is no threat - Nokia is doing extremely well, but all they are doing is swamping L M Ericsson and Motorola - and others in the GSM world. They are not beating the competitive advantage of cdmaOne and cdma2000. Even Nokia admits the future is CDMA. You are flogging that dead horse again! You are in the USA. Leave the horse alone and go enjoy the women mud-wrestling.
Anyway, add all that up and consider the high volume on rising price.
You will see $80 by 31 October [or end of November if need be].
Profit will be at the top end of expectations. Maybe even just a cent or few above that. I think that puts it at about 71 cents.
Then, when Ericy packs up their Texas lawyers and signs a deal at extorqueraniously unfair rates for a QUALCOMM licence for cdma2000, we will have a happy Xmas.
Mqurice
Okay, Ramsey's place it is Caxton! |
