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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 229.55+0.2%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST
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To: Rob S. who wrote (23606)10/29/1998 4:53:00 AM
From: Robert Rose  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
Rob S<sales growth looks strong for now - even if it's partly bogus.>

Rob, thanks for your contributions to this thread. How do you see
amzn's sales growth as partly bogus?

<Maybe I'm wrong about it moving up and expectations have been built high enough that
AMZN will drop like a rock now that the news for the quarter is out. I'll be watching for
signs of what to do next.>

As a long in amzn and other internet stocks, I'm finding the pattern
this quarter a little disconcerting. In past quarters, the typical
pattern was a runup up to earnings, most stocks hitting all-time
highs, then a dramatic selloff after earnings and all the news was
out. Then a repeat the following quarter. This time around, international events got in the way, so we had an "abnormal" correction mid-quarter after the Russian news, followed by an "abnormal" recovery after AG's second rate cut, and now "unnatural"
quiet after what most consider to be excellent reports from bellwhethers yhoo and aol.

With the possible exceptions of yhoo and ebay, new highs from here
do not look likely for most internet stocks this cycle. Likewise,
AG's support of the economy in the form of future interest rate
cuts provides support on the downside. Thus, I expect the post-earnings correction for internet stocks this quarter to be
less dramatic than normal. Which also means that I benefit less
by selling now to take advantage of internet stocks' cyclical volatility. Which means that I will likely hold up to next quarter's
reports and yawn now that the internuts are behaving more like "normal stocks....
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