Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Asyst Technologies (ASYT) Good Value/Where is the Bottom?

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To: WebDrone who wrote (1174)	10/29/1998 8:49:00 AM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) of 2313

Sorry. No idea. I can make a handwaving argument about end of the quarter tax loss selling abating to give a reason for a near term bottom in October, but other than short covering, I see no reason why this company is now selling for $12 when it sold for $6 only 3 weeks ago. The semiconductor industry is still suffering from overcapacity and I don't see any signs that there is any sort of near term pickup in the front end automation segment. Is ASYT cheap if you have a two year time horizon? Yes! Is it cheap if you look out 6 months? Who knows... The recent flurry of activity in the semiconductor equipment area seems to be based on a few analysts looking at durations of previous downturns and projecting that the next upturn will start in 6 months. The problem with this sort of reasoning is the extreme buildup in capacity in Asia over the past few years as Japan lent money like a drunken sailor. Until that capacity is shutdown or absorbed, I just don't see any way a new wave of spending starts. To look at it another way, I think ASYT is just following the larger and more well known names (AMAT, KLAC, NVLS) higher in sympathy vs. any real prospects for improvement. I'm not complaining about the price move either, but since there is no fundamental basis for the move, I won't be too surprised if it fades.

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