Sapiens International Corporation (SPNSF): Turn around...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Sapiens International Corporation (SPNSF): Turn around...?

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To: uu who wrote (1797)	10/29/1998 1:06:00 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (1) of 1936

TO ALL ON SPNSF: I apologize. I should have sent Addi a private message, but I was so excited, I sent it the fastest way I could. Ken Wilson aka High-Tech East Addi, do you believe this? To: +twister (11415 ) From: +twister Thursday, Oct 29 1998 11:55AM ET Reply # of 11469 i made a pact with some people on this thread some months ago that if I felt that I was wrong about sunw, i would say so on this thread. Let me tell you that I was wrong about the timing of my assesment of the sunw competitive position in the following ways. 1) I underestimated the extent that msft would mislead everyone on WIN2000 Enterprise Edition being out and available. I guess they are over a year behind even their revised schedules. (not that they need the thing out - i did!) 2) I underestimated the time it would take INTC to deliver on IA64. This window was also missed terribly , probably by a year or more. 3) I overestimated the UNIX competitive challenge to sunw from HWP, DEC, and IBM. They have not executed and SUNW has executed flawlessly. I am disappointed in HWP (mostly) and IBM for really dropping the ball. Now they are playing catch up. having said all that, I want to say my basic thesis, that sunw is painting themselves into a LONG TERM corner with their technology and financial road map is intact. The timing of this has been pushed out due to the factors I stated above. I originally felt two years ago that the problems with their model would become evident within 12 to 18 months. That was wrong. I now feel that the problems with their model (strategic and financial) will become evident within 9 to 18 months FROM TODAY. Win2000 EE must come out and ia64 must come out before sunw's model is inevitably damaged. In the meantime, I must congradulate those who remained bullish on sunw over this time frame on your recent market winnings. I have been wrong and I need to admit it. However, I haven't wavered from my long term opinion that SUNW will have problems down the road due to a changing competitive landscape. Take that for what it's worth and best of luck to all.

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