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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Lucretius who wrote (34807)10/29/1998 4:39:00 PM
From: joe smith  Read Replies (1) of 132070
 
lucretius,
im beginning to think fundamentals mean squat in this bull(shit) rally we are having. i am and have been about as bearish as one can get and have been that way since january of this year. i just dont like stepping in front of this train too soon. ive done that a few times this year and dont want to be in that position again. i have some longs but only because i bought them earlier in the year and they are at a loss. i also have about the same amount of dollars in shorts. they have been offsetting each other pretty well in this last run up. when the world is perfect again and i am tempted to test the long side, i will sell the longs (even if at a loss) and go 100% short.

i am surprised how long things are holding up this time. i see another big push to 8800-9000 before things turn down again. i can see this starting this fri/mon. by that point people will be so giddy . then it will start pulling back. how low i wont guess for the short term. as for longer term i still feel 4500-6000 is in the cards. s&p earnigs for this qtr show a decline over last year same qtr. that is the first time since 90/91. they are lowering q1 and q2 estimates already. yet we push up up and away. in time fundamentals will win out. will i have any cash left is the big question.

js
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