I still believe they will not survive
Wow, you really are a bear!
IMO you may have 10-20 points upside pain left, but who really knows.
I figure AMZN has about 3-6 months of hot air left. If the board was smart they would sell as much stock as the market will tolerate and load up with cash before this tulip's market cap collapses. Of course I keep thinking other booksellers/e-tailers will get serious, but B&N and company seem quite incompetent in the internet market so far.
Read todays Briefing.com for some bear food. I'm pretty sure you probably know all this already.
briefing.com
Also
briefing.com
This one is more entertaining, I'll post it here since it will likely disappear after today.
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General Commentary
Robert Bork's nomination to the Supreme Court was rejected by Congress after Democrats launched a particularly partisan and nasty public relations campaign which effectively smeared his reputation. Ever since, when a political nominee gets rejected due to similar tactics it is said that he/she has been "Borked."
We bring up this arcane reference for the purposes of making an analogy, as it's our contention that years from now when market historians look back at the fortunes won and lost in the Internet arena, they will refer to the losers as having been "Amazoned." Roughly translated, to have been "Amazoned" will mean to have been duped into buying a good story rather than a good company. Of course, the phrase will be born after Amazon's (AMZN) stock price crashes, causing many investors to lose their shirts.
To many of our readers such talk borders on sacrilege... Amazon has won loyalty from stockholders who have become very rich off the stock's relentless climb to new highs... In virtually no time at all the stock has risen from $10 to $117 and gone from IPO to market cap of $5.8 bln... But the time will come when the company's panache will have to be matched by its substance and right now there is simply no there, there... After yesterday's close company announced that it lost $0.49 a share, a full 31 cents more than in the year ago period... This while growing revenues at more than 305%... It seems the costs of doing business in this highly competitive climate is getting steeper and steeper... And as company expands its business into video market, it will take on more and more competition... In addition, as the revenue base increases year/year comparisons will naturally decrease... Combine the slowing rate of growth with tough competition and high costs and the question becomes not if AMZN will lose its luster, but when.
While we don't like the long-term prospects for AMZN's stock, we aren't foolish enough to bet against it at this juncture either... Stock continues to exhibit impressive momentum despite poor earnings track record, and given market's current bullish mood we wouldn't be surprised if street focuses on fact company beat estimates and not on fact that losses keep getting bigger and bigger... Nevertheless, we want no part of this one. |
