Ted: Fair enough. I didn't mean that kind of panic; I meant more a sense of urgency and seriousness in realizing that they don't have forever to achieve objectives, meet deadlines, and get things done.
I think the risks are increasing. By throttling back on marketing now, it means one's going to have to throttle forward that much more to make up for lost time, once the marketing effort is back in full force. I think it is risky to assume that everything -- market, competition, new entrants, further grocery industry consolidation, state of the 'Net, economy, Wall Street, etc -- will be the same as it is now, once the company gets its "centralized model" together and gets marketing back in gear.
Pushing things back by one quarter may not seem much, but when one studies the objectives and plans laid out in each quaterly conference since these began in Aug'97, one sees that the slippage is not something new, it's been going on since the IPO.
Reasoned long-term approaches are prudent and shrewd. Overly-cautious approaches might be just as detrimental as quick-fix short-sighted approaches, however.
In my opinion, Peapod management needs to nail some major objectives in the fourth quarter. Get the Chicago warehouse up and running. Keep pushing. Don't let up one bit. Come next February, I would like to hear management announce that it met its objectives, it got everything it planned to get done, and things are on track. Period. That's what 1999 should be about: stay on track. No more slippages. I don't think they can afford any more. No more "longer than we anticipated" and "underestimated" kinds of phrases. Those should be eliminated from the vocabulary.
I don't think Peapod has as much time as it thinks it has. And I don't think the money will last as long as they hope it will. I would hope they've forecast how long it can last -- and then divide that timeframe by two. If it's 18 or 24 months -- assume 9 to 12 months.
They need to figure out what the big focus issues and goals are and stick to them. The slippage indicates to me that they're not sticking to them.
Just my opinion. |
