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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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To: RDM who wrote (40391)	10/30/1998 3:09:00 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) of 1573571

RDM, re:<5 to 10 Million CPUs per quarter next year at an ASP of $150 or higher> Fab 30 is not expected to contribute significant output next year as it ramps up. Fab 25 is capable of between 4,000 and 5,000 20 cm wafers per week. Each K6-2 is 80 mm^2 and K6-3 is 117 mm^2. K7 is even larger, perhaps 150 mm^2. With 60% yield, we would get about 200 K6-2's, 140 K6-3's and 110 K7's. With the shrink to 0.18µ these numbers will go up, but the K6-2 will probably be dropped in favor of more K7's. Therefore, assuming no startup yield problems on the new process I wouldn't count on a blended average of more than 140 chips per wafer. 140 chips/wafer * 5,000 wafers/week * 13 weeks/quarter = 9.1M chips/quarter. Hmmm, I started out to prove that your numbers were too high, but with 4,000 wafers per week and 20% reduction due to startup of 0.18µ process, we still get 5.8M CPU's per quarter. Petz

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