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Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst

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To: swedelo who wrote (1510)10/30/1998 5:25:00 AM
From: HeyRainier  Read Replies (2) of 1720
 
[ Radica Games: RADAF Charts ]

If you want to get Technical, I'll oblige you:

For your information, charts are not static, but dynamic--ever shifting and subject to various conditions. Your implied criticism may indicate an incomplete recognition of this aspect of Technical Analysis. When I mentioned support as being light at $11.00, let me show you just how much of it there was as the chart was developing. For the sake of simplicity, I have eliminated the recent price activity from the chart. Please see Chart #1 on the following link (I suggest you open multiple browser windows so you can trace the activity as I point it out):

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Note the minimal support at the $11.00 level based on the rather light trading that previously took place from September of last year. I will assume your knowledge of the rudimentary elements of technical analysis is sufficient to acknowledge its existence.

Note on Chart #2 a better example of what a stronger support level looks like. The chart of Sunrise Technologies illustrates this example. Note the heavier trading volume that occurred at the $4.00 for a period of roughly four months (as opposed to one month only for RADAF).

Indeed, as time passed, the visibility of the $11.00 support level became stronger, and its validity could only be less and less ignored...See Chart #3. My close observation of the trading behavior for the past few days, and my realization of its persistence led me to present my view on the firming support level.

Furthermore, as support became firmer, the price established a well-recognized reversal formation, called an Ascending Triangle. I have followed and traded rather successfully on this formation alone for the past few years, and recognize well its Technical implications. Those who have followed my past comments on this formation know what I mean. For more information, please see the following for an explanation of the Ascending Triangle:

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...having that Ascending Triangle form as the price converged with the long term downtrend line signaled to me a possible emerging wave of buyers as traders both long and short would capitalize on this well-recognized formation and its implied result.

Chart #5 illustrates the breakout.

Breakouts like the one RADAF experienced are not too uncommon. Ascending Triangles can form anywhere, and it is particularly rewarding when they form in conjunction with a converging downtrend line, as shown by Chart #6. KKRO is the example in this chart.

There you have it. Just because I have a negative view on a company's fundamentals does not bind me from acting on my knowledge, instinct, and experiences as a trader. I recognize that there will be minor waves of bullishness within a Primary, bearish trend, and it is to the astute trader's advantage to capitalize on both occurrences, if and whenever possible.

RADAF happened to just be one of those. I stand by my words, and the above commentary is my defense.

RT
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