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To: Joseph G. who wrote (9903)	10/30/1998 10:23:00 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) of 86076

Of course given how over-valued the market is now 1999 could turn out more like 1930 than 1988.... One method I use which I've mentioned to you before is a set of moving averages and Bollinger Bands at 13 and 34 days and 34 weeks. These tend to match the time series stuff pretty well in indications. This time series stuff finds turning points based on changes in the properties of the time series. I came across the method by accident when playing around with combinations of various methods. Sorry no more on that for the moment. I am still thinking about the connections between these two methods and why they give similar indications. The time series stuff gives a strong sell signal at the August 87 and July 98 peaks. I offered to send you the charts. On them to me at least 1998 looks a lot like 1987 with the obvious exception that the crash on 19 October was much bigger than on 31 August. In particular, the bottoms in October 98 and December 87 look pretty similar - small more or less head and shoulder type formations. The % recovery out of that bottom seems pretty similar in size. The two bottoms occur below the 34 week Bollinger Band and then the index rises above the band. David

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