Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: marc chatman who wrote (31300)	10/30/1998 11:13:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

marc; a Greenspanesque ''trap'' - remember the Saudi Oil Ministers - ...threats (promises) to catch the short-traders by surprise ? I would not discount a ''bear trap'' type of announcement. <<The likelihood of tighter restrictions receded when the Gulf Arab president of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said he was content with oil cuts agreed earlier this year. ''The reductions we have agreed can be considered a good figure,'' UAE Oil Minister Obaid bin Saif al-Nasseri told reporters before a conference of oil producers and consumers. A closed-door session of OPEC ministers on the fringes of the conference went no further than discussing strategy ahead of the group's full winter gathering in Vienna next month. ''The ministers were just exchanging views on the general situation in the oil market,'' said OPEC Secretary-General Rilwanu Lukman after two hours of talks.>> I have a hard time believeing that they were - '' JUST exchanging views'' ....Saif-al-Nasseri is the guy who vowed, to catch the market by surprise. Something tells me - he has his opportunity knocking... I read an article which placed the real cost of Saudi's crude at $15+ in relationship to it's capacity of productiona and their dependancy to support their social economy via crude oil; they must have $18 + crude - this has drawn out far too long historically; there are way too many Oil Industry predictions for a long continuation of crude in the $15 range and remember; The Worlds's major Oil Companies just met in an International conference. Saudi Arabia has ''invited'' the Oil Majors to ''help'' them with their Oil Industry ??? Too many players have had too many ''meetings,'' Internationally, for this 3 Stooges act & $15 Oil to continue... I also think the Oil Companies know this - that is ''perhaps'' why we are seeing a buying spree here of late...Consolidation usually occurs at the two extremes - tops & bottoms - I'd say Companies are looking for their last chances to acquire cheap... I'm going to bet on this ''Saudi'' surprise; this is a very, very Volatile situation brewing - it will NOT continue without a major EVENT happening imho; ie: War , embargo or most likely - unannounced major, major cuts; designed to "Crush'' the short traders and to ''jar'' the market.

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