Mark,
I agree. PLRP has an innovative product and has made some very respectable associations with SAIC and customers. I also like the fact that they realize that in business, it is expand or die. Especially if he is still planning to do a second offering sometime next year. But where I think it gets shakey is where (1) he is promising $2.8 million in revenues due to the acquisition. To be more specific, it is the flip side which bothers me the most - the fact that they are losing money without this acquisition. There is inherently nothing wrong with that. All new businesses experience losses. It is part of the journey. But this guy has been in business for a while now. And the way they are promoing this thing, to me it seems unreal. There is no way in my mind this is realistically worth the $.50 to $1.00 that people are asserting. That would make it a $10 to $20 million company? Not yet, not for a while. (2) The recent acquisition wasn't even a full merger. It was an acquisition of ASSETS. Some contracts came with it. And it will add to the immediate bottom line, but the future is less certain. They really need to capitalize on whatever connections and access they have gained in terms of government contacts. Hopefully, Calkins was smart enough to secure some agreement whereby he can continue to bid through them as a sub-contractor or joint-contractor so he can take advantage of their (8)a minority business status. (3) Price is not being maniulated at all IMO. No shorts, no guy dumping 500,000 shares. This is all complete BS. The fact is, this is what the company is worth at its current stage. Somewhere between $.10 and $.30. Only reason we are on the upswing is because Calkins is himself playing with the price to buy up the float. Too many people have simply sold their shares and bailed out. (4) Their "flagship product" the VisualWriter seems to have taken a back seat to everything else. They've only sold roughly 4000 copies over the last 5 years. It would be nice to find out how many of these were at discounted prices, what the break down was over the last 5 years, etc. (5) They are issuing too many news releases that come across as fluff. And (6) they are being promoed by scoundrels and amateurs. Bruce Pollock and Wall Street Financial do one thing best, and this is raise money for the companies they work with. We can sit and cite examples of where Bruce and WSF have left a trail of crippled stocks and mangled shareholders until the Dow hits 10,000. The simple fact of the deal is that they have accomplished their mission. The flip side of that is the fact that the long-term shareholders eat it in almost every instance. On top of it, they use amateurs like Patrick Gundlauch (Penny Paradise Newsletter) and blatant P&Ders like Reason and his little cohorts, give them inside information and even free shares, and they are all over the web like powdered sugar from a donut on a fat cop. And these aren't the first ones they've done. WSF and Pollock have done the same thing with other stocks they have managed. ARXA, CRNC, soon IFOS, etc. etc. Just look at how all of a sudden now that Patrick Gundlauch is getting shares and he is their paid PR guy, he is posting 10 times more than he used to. He has to work for his $3,000 to $4,000 grand a month. The ironic thing is Calkins was trying to REDUCE the float. Now he is dumping more shares back into it with the BS. Don't get me wrong, I don't have anything against Pat and can understand why he is doing what he is doing. But at the same time, he has crossed a line and people should be made aware of his true motivations. Simply put, I think he should have a disclaimer on every message. Or SI should ban paid promoters. Too many people will get suckered in.
All this said, I am still following the company because I am particularly interested in the VisualWriter. IMO they should focus their efforts on it rather than diversifying at this point. But I can't see everything they are doing and don't know all the reasons behind it. Hopefully, it will become clear in the short term. Further, I think that Calkins is a straight-shooter who has ignorantly surrounded himself with wolves. I think the share buyback was less hype and more commitment on his part, though it may not have come off looking that way. Add to that the fact that most of the shares are held tightly. Thus far, I see no reason to rush in and invest. I will likely wait to see the 10Q and want to hear rumblings of a solid software distribution deal. Also, I will watch and see how many shares leak into the float in the coming months.
Prov |
