blake,
Good questions. Keep asking them. Right now, I'm beat
and still gotta go get some food.
Generally though, I think we need to wait for Monday and
Tuesday to see follow through. We're definitely edging up.
One reason I like today, is becaue it really whipped the
Naz. A few more days like this and we'll be starting to
remember the old days.
But first, let's digest today, and see the next couple
of days. I know Steve thinks we make get upward surprises
soon. Yup, always have to be ready for them. But, some
consolition is in order. IMO, this is mainly true, because
I still don't see the level of institutional money that
we will see when COMS is at $60. Today, there were traders
still hoping on. AND, I'LL BET YOU THERE WERE SHORTS. Some
folks are still convinced that COMS will screw up this
next quarter.
>>What happens if the fed doesn't lower rates on 17 November?<<
He has to. Credit problems is what he's worrying about, not
the stock market or inflation. At this point hedge funds
around the world have been whipped. The world economy is
definitely in the upward trend now, IMO. So, it may not
matter that much if rates aren't lowered, if by then HK
market is up another 20%, ASIAN growth is finally visible
to some degree, and the threat of devaluation is non-existant.
>>post-preannouncement PE's <<
based on '99 earnings, I'd speculate 30-35%. That makes
COMS worth around $41 - $48 assuming $1.35 '99 earnings.
But, that $1.35 will be revised, and the 30-35% may be
revised substantially by feb-march of '99.
Of course the earnings rate going from '99 to '00 will be
much higher than 30-35% because '99 earnings are too low.
They were created assuming that COMS was going to be sick
all year, IMO.
ask me again about this blake, good stuff to review.
joe |
