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Politics : Ask Michael Burke

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To: Mike M2 who wrote (34949)	10/31/1998 11:35:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) of 132070

To all,you too MM, Barron's 10/26/98 p.40 has an interview with David Levy worth reading. He predicts we are in for a "contained depression rather than a recession" and a full blown depression in many parts of the world. He also makes reference to the "unwinding of the bubble in consumer spending- not only as the wealth effect reverses but as consumers unwind some of the enormous debt burden they've built up in this expansion" Other good stuff and charts like our dismal savings rate while he concedes that many criticisms of the statistic are valid when you have a five point swing in a statistic that generally moved in a 3 point range for 30 yrs, that sudden drop off a cliff means something. I have said before that a recessions is a liquidation of inventory while a depression is a liquidation of debt and capacity. I don't recall who wrote that on SI but I liked it's simplicity. The article makes reference to Joseph Schumpeter's " creative destruction" Will calls it industrial tough love" ho ho ho . There is also a good story about the history of sovereign debt defaults by Robert Sobel. Mike

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