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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 22.04-4.0%Jan 30 9:30 AM EST
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To: sillen who wrote (3027)10/31/1998 12:42:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (1) of 29970
 
The pigs have come to the trough:

biz.yahoo.com

As Bob Zacks put it, will T and TCI sacrifice ATHM in order to merge? You can't trust either of them because TCI can't make it by staying only in the tv business and T needs the fiber for telephony. It's practically a sure thing the FCC won't ok the merger unless ATHM is sacrificed. Even if T is willing to give up telephony for the far more important and lucrative broadband services market, the telephony issue is not enough to satisfy the pigs. You know where the FCC will get its slop.

Let's examine the tableau of possible outcomes:

A.merger goes through
1. carrier status busts ATHM, AOL becomes the new telco
2. carrier status hurts ATHM but means exist to manage it
i. TCI leasing surcharge
ii. protected content
3. carrier status doesn't hurt ATHM
4. carrier status fails on legal grounds
B.merger fails
1. ATT decides to build its own fiber network
i. includes broadband and telephony, but no tv
a. ATHM signs agreement to distribute ATT and TCI
2. everyone goes their separate ways

I've arranged this tableau in order of increasing bullishness. Notice B2. Most of you will disagree with this positioning, but the power of it is seen in the fact that it puts off invasion and so enables ATHM under a struggling TCI to mature.
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