Mike, Prechter was the hottest guy in TA when I started working for St. Paul in 1981. Granville was passe, Zweig had had his 15 minutes, and it was Prechter's turn in the barrel. Everyone from the Street to other portfolio managers hung on his word.
Opt for the beer over the Barron's.
The problem with paper portfolios is when you start trying to spend your profits. Unless you shop at a paper Walmart, you have problems right away. <G>
I have mixed feelings about paper portfolios. I think they are useful for teaching basic SOP. However, I think they are not substitute for managing real money. In the options game, nearly every institution starts with a paper portfolio. I remember a broker who is also a friend once telling me about a guy from Chicago who had kicked butt in a paper portfolio. He said I ought to have lunch with him to understand his technique. And had he not been a greedy broker, he probably would have called me an A-Hole when I started laughing at the suggestion. 18 months later the guy had totally blown up his portfolio.
The problem is, you will do things with a paper portfolio that you would not do with real money when your job is on the line. And you CAN do things that size, commissions, friction, and market movement will not allow you to do in the real world. This even works for the Marty Zweigs, Elaine Garzarellis and Abbey Jos. You can say anything you want from the pulpit, but when your money is on the line and your palms are sweating and your girlfriend tells you that her Porsche is 6 weeks old and dirty and she'd rather get another guy to buy her a new shiny one than wash it, your decision making process has a lot more stress. <G>
BTW, managing a mutual fund is sort of like a cross between a paper portfolio and real money. I always put all of my own money in my funds so I would treat it like it was mine instead of treating it as a way to keep score.
MB |
