Good article, Ron.
Have studied Dr. Yardeni's forecasts, and they are on the grim side. I lean towards his view myself. Only historical problem with his 1999 forecast is that this is the third year in the presidential election cycle, and with exception of the Great Depression, and 1939 (preceding WWII), this third year has always been a winner. Even the fourth year of the cycle, the year of the election, has generally been a winner. But watch out for 2001.
So, It is hard to devine the meaning of a down year in 1999, if that happens. Could be a real bummer, and for only the second time in about seventy years.
Is it time to buy insurance via some way-out-of-the-money puts? Or long OTM calls on gold stocks?
Dennis |
