Zeev, Hello! it has been a long time since i posted anything to the web. i have several questions for you. at your leisure.
(1) what information do you think is currently impounded into the share prices?
i think that most of the bad news about fundamentals is already in the share prices, and i also think that some of the more speculative fund managers have already been nibbling in the sector. i think the broader based fund managers are still waiting to see if we're at the bottom of the flat-based "U" curve, and their measure of the health of the sector is the BTB ratio. When that turns positive (more on that in a moment) they might bite on the sector hard, especially if the big-cap consumer stocks that they've been investing in start to realize contracting profit pictures. i've been waiting on a sector rotation for months that hasn't happened because the semi sector has continued to deteriorate through time. if we can get a reversal in semis at the same moment we get a downtrend in the glamour stocks on the big board, it might be very nice. This then sets the stage for the 6-trillion dollar question:
(2) when do you see a reversal on the trend in the BTB ratio? (Mason, i would appreciate your thoughts on this question as well.) two attendant questions for you guys: If we were to graph BTB ratio on the y-axis, and time on the x-axis, what is the "market" looking for?
a. does the graph have to have positive slope (positive first derivative) or
b. is it enough for the second derivative to be positive while the first derivative is still negative? ie the curve is becoming less negative?
i ask simply to get your take on this aspect of the pricing dynamics on the sector.
(3) if the sector were to turn, where would (will) you have your cash?
of particular interest in this question is how would you trade off having money in the big-name semis (AMAT, NVLS, Intel, etc.) versus being in big in smaller-cap equipment stocks requiring a major sector upgrade to be spectacular. companies please gentlemen ;^)
(4) i got lucky recently on Cienna and made about $5,000 in the last week. if anyone follows the stock or the fibre market, do you have a thought on whether the company will hold this value gain if the take over rumors are false. (i realize i should go over and hang out on the Cienna thread, but wading through 300 or so messages is so tiring!! i'm lazy and looking for a shortcut!)
jess. |
