Ascend Communications (ASND) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)

ASND 204.41

-1.0%

Nov 14 9:30 AM EST

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To: John Meares who wrote (56646)	11/1/1998 11:55:00 AM
From: sunfish	Read Replies (1) of 61433

Just a wondering about stock recommendations -how do these guys arrive at their recommendations? I wanted to weigh in with my 2 cents about how analysts arrive at their recommendations. First, let me say that I have completed no systematic study of analysts' predications and that I use them only as contrary indicators. But this is how things appear to me to work. The analysts try (along with everyone else) to get "ahead" of the game. Of course they can't because they are part of the game although they do occasionally get some hot and true tips I'm sure. When they do, none of us will ever get that information from them anyway. Since they can't get ahead of the game, they manipulate the game to the extent that they can. When they perceive weakness in a stock (along with the rest of us who watch the stocks), they sell for their clients having issued no changes in their recommendations. Then when this selling is done and the stock is (usually) already much depressed, they issue gloom and doom sell signals aimed at precipitating a crash in the stock price so that they can have their clients buy back at much lower prices.... recent examples, ASND at 22 or CIEN at 7. As the stock recovers to "fair value" they begin to issue buy recommendations, then at "over valued" they issue Strong Buy recommendations. These buy recommendations are designed to push the stock even higher as their clients hold. At the first sign of trouble (and maybe before) they begin to sell for their clients, once the selling is done they issue "sell" recommendations for the rest of us... usually after the stock is already down 30-80%. Then at the bottom, they issue "strong sell" gloom and doom messages, buy for their clients and the whole cycle begins again. IMHO these analysts do those of us who buy during the crashes in these tech stocks a great service in driving their prices far below "fair value" (where we should be buying) and then driving them up far above "fair value" (where we should be lightening up). Anyway, this strategy of using the volatility that they help to produce has worked for me and thus I wish to thank them for their contribution to the chaos that is the market. All the above IMHO only and my disclaimer is that I don't have a clue as to how they really choose stocks, only that my observations seem to be consistent with the above comments.

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