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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: Joey Smith who wrote (40549)11/1/1998 1:58:00 PM
From: kash johal  Read Replies (1) of 1573709
 
Joey,

Re However, I would be worried if I was long AMD because Intel's >strategy is clear: introduce faster processors at the low-end while >matching AMD with price. I believe Andy Grove made a statement >recently to the effect "the party's over for AMD". He usually means >what he says. Sure, this may hurt Intel's bottom-line a little bit, but the >effect on AMD will continue to be devastating.

So early next year they will have 366 and maybe 400 Mhz celery's to compete with AMD.

What do you think will happen to PII pricing as the 400Mhz celery with full speed cache will be as fast a PII 450.

And a K6-3 400/450 will blow away PII 450 and Celery 450/500.

Looks like AMD will be competing head on with 90% of Intels CPU's and as the lowest cost supplier they win the price war hands down.

The major problem intel has is its cost structure. It's ASP's are around $220 and with 50% margin their raw manufacturing cost is $110. As celeron and PII die sizes are similar and these sales constitute 90% of the company sales in Q3 these are absolute numbers.

AMD has a manufacturing cost of <$50 per cpu and that's with it's major fab running at 60% capacity.

So Intel can hurt AMD but they cannot kill them anymore, due to AMD being able to compete in majority of Intels speed range.

As regards Andy he is just one person, and he has been wrong many times. Their whole Celery thing has been a disaster. Ramping CPU speed and lowering prices is a good strategy but they need to slash their costs as well to follow AMD's strategy of HIGH permance at a GREAT Price.

Regards,

Kash
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