Hi Greg,
Re: gloom and doom article.
I had an interesting insight just now while reading this article:
I will only invest in American technology companies.
Why? Well, there may be other opportunities around the globe. But right now, America has the best government possible. Our citizens are allowed to keep most of the money they earn, and if one of us has a good idea for a business, we can start the business without worrying that it'll be usurped by eminent domain.
America has the most efficient social system. It's easy to move up, and it is determined solely by your skills (of course, those skills may involve sleeping with the boss, or playing golf, but that's a part of life -- determining which skills are necessary in order to better your position).
And that's another thing that's great about this country: we can choose which skills to focus on, unlike some countries in which your job (or marriage!) is determined for you by an outside agent (parents or testing board).
While there may be better opportunities in the short term in emerging markets, I'd rather follow an American industry leader who is now investing in different countries. This leader has many people working for him who can determine whether a country is a good place to currently invest. They have a lot more data at their disposal than I do. So rather than trying to find a good country (and then, a good company within that country) to invest in, I'll just invest in this industry leader and then my investment will "follow" them to these other countries.
Because this company's base of operations is America, chances are slim that problems in the new country will wipe out the company. However, if I invested in a company that existed in the emerging country, chances are much greater that a problem in the country will wipe out the company. So an American investment is safer, too.
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To make this growing story shorter, I will restate my position: I will only invest in American, technology companies. American because capitalism beats every other method of distributing wealth (give more of it to those who produce more -- this ensures an upward spiral). Technology because technology allows us to do more with less, and those who are doing the most with the least are in another upward spiral.
Then, within that subset of companies, choose those who: have an excellent build-to-order model, are not setting up conflicts among potential sets of customers (channel vs. direct), are able to get new products to customers in record time (inventory turnover), and have the highest customer satisfaction rating.
There are other technology companies out there that I can put my money into. Dell, from my research, is the best (so far).
I hope that we all continue to research other companies being born and post our findings here, so we don't get stuck on a steam train when the rocketship's being boarded. But I have no doubt in my mind that this will happen -- as time goes on, more and more of us will be able to retire and will have more time to spend researching other opportunities. (In fact, it's already got so much traffic that I no longer read the entire thread.)
Good trading (trading? What am I talking about! I mean holding) to all of you,
KenB |
