Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 160.55

+0.9%

11:27 AM EST

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To: Gottfried who wrote (7226)	11/1/1998 3:32:00 PM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) of 10921

Gottfried, hello brother. Thanks ever so much for the chart of the BTB ratio. It removes all speculation. we've had a tremendous upturn in many share prices as the second derivative went from negative to positive. To me, the "market" is chomping on the bit to price good news back into the stock prices. In answer to Ramsey's criticism about my optimism being driven by being back in the states, let me say that i am only trying to get a feeling for how the "market" prices the sector. knowing the fundamentals is not nearly as important as knowing how the market is going to price those fundamentals into share prices. Many of us received a healthy lesson in how the market prices downside momentum in the last calendar year. It would be as big a mistake to let fear cause us to miss the reintroduction of a positive attitude (bias??) in the market's overall assessment. Stay on the sidelines Ramsey, if you wish. Every investor has to follow his/her heart. Mine tells me to be a little cautious but not at all timid. Timing the sector is problematic. Missing out on a real turnaround would be nearly as tragic as getting caught in a huge downdraft. I don't think you can truly soar in this sector if you're not in it from the beginning. If the worst has been priced into the shares, the risk/reward tradeoff starts to favor reward over risk. I think the best we can do is (1) recognize the truth of the strong correlation between risk and reward, and (2) plan our investment strategy in the following way: (a) try to pare back exposure as things go from sunny to cloudy, (b) try to increase exposure as things go from cloudy to sunny. I merely say that we're more towards (b) than (a) and to my mind that translates as increasing exposure to quality issues in the semi sector. jess.

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