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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 215.60-0.7%9:41 AM EST
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To: OtherChap who wrote (24078)11/1/1998 7:05:00 PM
From: Tom D  Read Replies (1) of 164684
 
<<Yes, indeed, I sense in the relatively near future the financial situation behind the 'net stocks in general is going to be looked on as one of the greatest frauds in the history of the equity markets.>>

What do you mean by "relatively near future"? What do you see as the catalyst to this "correction" of the inappropriate market caps of these stocks? I don't see any imminent problems. AMZN will probably sell $250M this quarter (my wild guess). The street will love it--over $600M in revenues for 1998. Double that for the next couple years and you've got sales near BKS. I worried about the Q1 98 vs Q4 97 comparison, but AMZN did fine with this seasonal issue last year. The Q1 99 vs Q4 98 comparison is my biggest fear. AMZN's second wave of competition will eventually challenge them, but their competitors have been anything but nimble so far.

If what you suspect about the keiretsu is correct, why are you advocating betting against it? To me you are just making a case for selling short internet stocks outside of the kieretsu, with possibly hedging the position with long positions within the keiretsu. I would never have bought AMZN stock at under $15 per share (split-sdjusted) were it not for its relationship with KP. Outside of the keiretsu, the stock is worthless (JMHO). As a member of a network of companies with more market cap than MSFT, the rules of the game for AMZN are different.

Tom
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