Jef,
After doing a serious "post-mortem" on the market this weekend, I've come to the following conclusions.
1). Wave 1 of A Down began on 7/20 and ended on 9/1. Wave 2 of A began there, and we had A of 2 running up into 9/28, B of 2 melting down into 10/8, and C of 2 rallying strongly to our current position.
2) Within this C of 2 rally, it looks like we are in wave 4 of 5 of C. Elliott projections would allow for 1132 Dec futures as I see them, and the head and shoulders reversal pattern from the October 6-10 bottoming period projects to 1123.50. It appears as though at least the lower end of this target range will be met early this coming week, wrapping up wave 2 of A. The 16 day cycle calls for a change of trend on Monday, Nov.2nd (+/- 1 day).
3) This sets the stage for wave 3 of A, a wave down that could take several months to complete and should take us at least back to the bottom of our recent trading range (940-1110). With Jan.11 being the next key Bradley turning date, this could be a reasonable target date for its completion. The recent Oct.28th turning date on the Bradley will probably be connected to the final highs we see early this week. There is an outside chance that Friday's highs will be the final highs of this wave C of 2 rally, so I plan on getting short by no later than Wednesday, and will use the 1 week highs as a stop.
This read is similar to Carl "The Hit Man" Hittle's read (Heil Hittle[r]!!). We'll both be looking for a very tradeable downturn once this 5th wave of C ends, the downturn being labeled wave 3 of A (he may call his wave C of A, but don't listen to 'em, he's fresh out of glue!).
Best regards, and hope this finds you well.
David |
