Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: VLAD who wrote (31345)	11/2/1998 6:26:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

RE: LT - No ''attacks'' here, but humor is definitely called for with the Loquacious one... LT; timing is everything; here is the most successfull Short Selling Hedge Fund Manager of this year, with his current take on the market. PS: he's now long and has covered ALL shorts - go figure ? From theStreet.Com (subscribe) <<Consider Doug Kass' case. The general partner and founder of Kass Partners, Kass says he had nearly all short bets in the year's first half and was down as a result. But then he gained 38% in the third quarter, putting him up 26% year to date. But while he runs a short-oriented shop, for the first time since late 1996 he has now covered all shorts and holds net long investments. >> Unfortunately LT, there is no historic model for successfully fighting the Fed; NONE. Don't fight the tape, the trend is your friend... don't spit into the wind, mess with Jim, or Alan G... Now; down the road... that would be another story. If you said; we were setting ourselves up for one of the greatest inflation plays (read commodities/oil) in history down the road - due to the Fed and the World's required over- demand stimulation & rate cuts. Then- only then; would I give you credit for being RIGHT ! For one of the great ''predictable'' runs is going to occur shortly. Ride the Bull/Fed Rate Cute train to its top; then play the commodity/demand play; then - step 3, short this ''propped up disaster waiting to happen'' market... because at that time; we will be in uncharted waters...and to unwind everything; as we will have to be fighting inflation - all most by definition; - due to our actions presently; we will have created the scenario where the cure will be the sickness shortly. Liquidity and low rates will lead to inflation; with ''propped up'' artifically enhanced corporate earnings; when we will be required to raise rates; to cut liquidity - to keep the Inflation Genie bottled up.... Then the ultimate Bear Market will be in play; but not beforehand.. LT; it's just NOT that hard to figure out... This is one of the great play now & pay later scenarios in history. The $64 question is; Will Alan Greenspan be around when the time comes to ''unwind'' or ''reign it in'' ?

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