Hi Blake,
I follow Fed meeting dates and G7 meeting dates very carefully. The results of these outside influences cause very short term dramatic swings in the market way beyond which "fundamentals" can do. Inveritably they are "storms in tea cups" But with a little astuteness one can make benefit of them.
OK so at the next forum, 0,25% is a given, and 0,5% is expected. At 0,25 the market will tank, at 0,50 we may expect a warm feeling (+200)
My take is that Alan G. is conservative, and that 0,25% is all we can expect.
THINK : If he gives 0,50% in November, all and sundry will be waiting cap in hand at the next round expecting more. The German Gvnt. has already indicated a cut in interest rates, which is OK, Asian rates are low anyway, but it will be dangerous for the FED to enter into a deflanationary rat-race, despite the (relative) gripes from the street at home.
So I see 0,25% this month at best, and zilch as worst case
My 2 cents worth
Alan |
