Ciena (CIEN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 201.71

+3.1%

Dec 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: SouthFloridaGuy who wrote (5003)	11/2/1998 5:48:00 PM
From: Doughboy	Read Replies (2) of 12623

Puff Daddy, Much as I would like to turn back the clock, I can't agree with you that Ciena is a $40 stock let alone a $90 one. Ciena has changed fundamentally from a company that was expected to earn $2.00 a share next year to being one that may lose money next year. At $2.00/share, Ciena was properly valued in the mid-40s. At break even, it's anybody's guess what Ciena is worth. Losing the AT&T contract and the smaller Teleport contract was a big part of the change in valuation, and it remains to be seen whether BellSouth and/or Bell Atlantic will make up any of the lost ground. Also, Ciena's established customers Sprint and Worldcom have both indicated slowing down their buying of DWDM in the near term and have squeezed Ciena for big discounts. I'm not sure Ciena can expect profit margins in the 50-60% range that it has done in the past. The smartest thing someone said on this thread was to was to forget about $90. That's irrelevant to where Ciena is now, and investing based on that $90 baseline is going to get you into trouble. Doughboy.

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