Doc Stone's Bierstube und Trading Room Message Board

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Non-Tech : Doc Stone's Bierstube und Trading Room

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To: Ahda who wrote (438)	11/2/1998 9:04:00 PM
From: M. Frank Greiffenstein	Read Replies (1) of 638

Shorting AMAT again... I got out of AMAT puts in the middle of the big run up in semi-equip stocks. I lost about 30%, my mental "stop" for getting out of an option position. I knew the rise was irrational, but I don't fight the tape and I don't find the fed and I don't fight analysts pounding the table. Espeically when all three events happen at once. The rise in NVLS has been nothing but exasperating (and I lost money on those puts too!). A double in 2 weeks after the company stuffed the channel but "selling" stuff to customers of uncertain ability to pay. Some sanity came back today when Merril Lynch and another brokerage downgraded the smei stocks. In the space of 2 weks, all price targets had been hit, despite DRAM pricing starting to shrink and Taiwan chip foundries (AMATS biggest customer) downgraded their own 1999 earnings prospects. DocStone

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