>>1. I think the recent market rally has been due in part to an expectation that Republicans will not win enough seats to drive on with the impeachment proceedings.
Wrong. The recent rally began just two hours before the House voted to pursue the impeachment inquiry, with only 5 members voting "no". Impeachment by the House has been a foregone conclusion ever since then, if you had bothered to read the press, since it only requires a majority of the House. Whether Clinton is removed by the Senate depends on the size of election win by the Republicans.
>>An expectation that the election will not be a bad referendum on Mr. Clinton. There was a huge rally when he was re-elected 2 years ago, another rally when it seems that he will hang on.
Wrong. The huge rally began in November 1994 when the Republicans took the House and Senate. There was no rally that began in November 1996.
>>2. If the Republicans win veto proof control of Congress, or even come close by picking up several seats, we can expect the Starr saga to drag on for two more years. The stock market will romptly crash in this event.
Wrong. The Starr investigation will continue for at least two more years regardless of who controls Congress. Furthermore, you are confused. The idea of a "veto-proof" control was never in the offing since that would require 2/3 control of each body. I believe that you are confusing "veto" and filibuster.
>>3. If the Republican gains are small, or even losses, so that the current balance of power is not shifted, we can expect the current market rally to explode and we will see new market highs before yearend.
Republican losses leading to control by the Dems would lead to a market collapse, since it would be evident to everyone that the corrupt and venal have won.
A small Republican gain would lead US to continue on the present path of impeachment. A huge Republican gain would reinforce the rally that began in late 1994 when the Republicans, in a great historic shift, took power away from the Democrats and Clinton.
Remember, the market has already factored in that Clinton will be impeached by the House and tried in the Senate. The extent of Dem losses tomorrow will merely decide whether or not the Dems in the Senate join in the vote to remove him - those Dems will determine whether Clinton is removed or not.
The prevailing wisdom, looking at 2000, is that Reps want him to remain and Dems want him to leave. |
