LOL :o)
I bet you thought I was gonna make you wait after reading that last post didn't you? Here are his thoughts on THQI:
>>THQI is almost at a new high. Unbelievable. If this stock were a person,
I'd recommend a psychiatrist, or perhaps some medication for the
traders. Anyway, my outlook has been pared back in recent months, due to
the consistent pushing out of titles into 1999, as well as the
cancellation of several titles. My 1998 and 1999 estimates are $1.58 and
$1.94. Revenue 1998: $163 M and 1999: $219 M. The main reasons for the
good revenue growth are obvious: More of the same THQ magic. But the EPS
growth is weak because of the higher tax rate. Pretax income should
increase by 31% (slightly less than sales because of the high proportion
of N64 titles, which have lower margin than others). Shares out
increase by 5%. All in all, 1999 should be decent, relative to 1998.
But my estimates for 1999 are more conservative than my typical
estimates are. I'm only counting titles that THQ has already announced,
which still leave about 10 more titles to match the typical 30+
titles/year figure. Included in the 10 titles are the WWF titles in
December 1999, possible Dreamcast title, and other publishing titles. We
may even see an acquisition (MPRS, part 2 is playing out at Interplay
(IPLY) right now). I don't think THQ should buy all of IPLY, but it
could be done for less than 10% of THQ's shares outstanding. That would
be fair, provided that THQI could prevent dilution. The other wildcard
for 1998 and 1999 earnings is WCW/NWO Revenge. I said more than 6 months
ago that this title would be the biggest title yet. It is looking like
that. My estimates call for 500,000 units sold in each Q4 and Q1. That's
1 Million. If THQ can sell twice as many units (certainly possible with
the $4 million advertising campaign), EPS could rise by 15-20 cents in
each quarter. That would impress Wall Street. So the future looks
bright, provided THQ can begin to sell its PC titles (the results so far
have been disappointing).<<
Rugrats, Revenge, TechTrends,
Todd |
