Moderation Whipsaw is a great pitch.. unfortunately this is in short supply recently on SI---
Within this expensive and inexpensive territory lies the voice of moderation, I think it is only with moderation that you get your bearing right, stocks are generally overpriced for simple reason that over a period of time stocks outperform most of the other kind of investments like bonds. So one needs to have a careful approach to the stock market.
I totally concede that markets always overrun on upside as they do on downside but that given, the trader in me should stand up and take the opportunity when offered,, my thread takes a responsible attitude against all the noise of gloom, it is this attitude to raise voice of reason when voodooists are posting 97 out of 100 posts on short side, I ask only one question does pessimism means perpetually to be on the losing side? Here on this thread maintaining moderation I try to mirror what I think are the fundamentals elements that drive the market..
I have only one observation and that is one should trade with reason and history behind him I see on those two counts the self styled gurus miserably fail. I am up on the year up I think 78% and change from where I was up 51% at end of June and composite is still not at 1980 where it was when I was 51% higher end June.I just think that opportunities like composite at 1320 should have been too visible to be passed, it wa a resistance and a doulbe top nearly 2 years back, I think it is very foolish to short at those even if history was not one's forte atleast volatility demanded caution or covering of shorts. This is death of trading I do highlight this to avoid future mistakes, markets are not going to end we open every day and hence my intention is too let people know what to look for at bottoms look at bonds at history and valuations.
I take my record as yardstick and I think that something I am doing which is good enough as whatever I do is written on this thread like a chronology of events - I look at all of this and I see I could not have these phenomenal returns in a bear market or with a blocked mind, for me I treat all this a pure academics and wish to incorporate reason and traditions a part and parcel of one's trading universe..
That is it, for me markets are opportunity I owe to the readers of SI an environment where I don't create panic and terror and don't end up looking like a fool as some unfortunately right now look... moderation on way down as you rightly say and moderation on way up.. I will like the forecasts from a explainable model and not from non-existent formulations, at the end of the day if I do that I will only fool my ownself..
I for one will continue to avoid pain. As I know it is voodooism and misrepresentation at its worst that results into such self inflicted pain, markets are never about one's ego once ego and pride comes in play markets just disappear.
I am polite I just don't take names but I observe people who keep changing their script only to be whipsawed by the markets... I try to convince people with my logic and TA, otherwise I shut up, I do write long notes but the purpose is to let people know rationale of my thinking I owe it to them…
I don't fool my own self that is the trait of many. My returns are my best judge the day they go haywire I would rather never write and try to incorporate confusion.
I know it well that fooling innocent investors is an unpardonable sin. it is this urge not to be carried away by fear and gloom that I keep this spot a place where one can refresh even whem market is down 500 points I sow hope and I love it.
IO do not claim to have a model but my performance is better than many a models. In my opinion SI is a public place and calling fire in a cinema is just plainly wrong, for me it is this calling fire which offends me.. World coming to an end oversimplification of global problems. that is something which one needs to check..
My thread sing;le hanadedly stands for that ‘read' of the market which is genuine and professional and based on accurate reading I go back and remind my readers of my past posts 'immediate and distant' because I owe it to them I am entrusted with responsiblitly to be honest and fair about my professional depth I would not like to show what I am not qualified to do....
I thank you for your pertinent observation, but after taking so much of abuse in last 1 and half year I have realised that my thread should question without names the voodooism and gloomism so intently patronised, I know I don't make much friends but I watch this self inflicted bent of pain and voodooism very carefully more so I know none of these guys are trading in that direction their intention is to masturbate intellectually I stand in front of them like a rock....
I do say only one thing ‘ accomporas and favours' put up or shut up.. This keeps them very careful they think before they write, it is anyway good for them they may end up as great traders once this streak of doom and gloom disappear..
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