Scot,
On your analysis: You make many good points and were very thorough in picking apart the earnings PR. <gg> I can feel your rage! However, my understanding is that Unreal is actually doing very well, though I am now concerned about the system requirements being a problem since as you pointed out, the newer games will continue to put further demands on what is needed to run the games. As far as GT keeping any cash "from the sales" of the Unreal engine - it isn't GT's engine - so they wouldn't get anything directly from the licensing of it. They're making their money in the distribution of the games, and are financing the development of new titles with various outside houses who may or may not be licensing the Unreal engine in their development.
There should be lots of revenues in the pipeline. More Duke from Scott's 3DRealms, WOT from Legend in the spring, and perhaps even some sequels to games already released. :o As to how GT will manage these revenues, in terms of EPS and net income remains to be seen, but the money will be there in the next few quarters. Let's hope that it is managed wisely for the sake of the many shareholders who have long been faithful to GT but who have not been rewarded thus far for their patience.
I am sorry that you, like many, have lost money yet again. From an investment standpoint, that is why [protective] puts exist. <ggg> Now, if you don't want to blow your position now but might not mind selling if the price is right, just write some covered calls on the next upswing and make some cash. And, be quiet. ;) If you agree that they are turning things around (I really do, and I know the thread hates me for saying that, but I do think they are)... then use this as a buying opportunity to strengthen your position once it shakes out entirely. (i.e. Wait for the downgrades first. ;) Those in at the 4-5 levels look pretty good in spite of the earnings, having a 10-20% unrealized gain in spite of the action today. Having sold at 7ish would've been the best move with a reentry sometime this week or next, but hindsight is always 20/20, naturally. Mid to long term holders will be fine anywhere under 7. Traders who got greedy and held once resistance at ~7 was reached will have to decide how to proceed now short term though it appears that there wasn't really too much damage done thus far today.
Technically, GT was overbought at the 7 range anyway, and the earnings disappointment just brought it back toward support at 5 1/2 which we witnessed this morning given the rebound off of the 5 1/2 support level. This is a typical post earnings pattern though, and as I eluded above, there could be more shaking out in the near future once the earnings are scrutinized by the ANALysts. :)
Personally, I'd wait to see what transpires over the next few days, unless one is interested in some quick day trades in the meantime and likes to gamble.
I know you are upset now, but I honestly think you will be ok in the weeks and months to come. Don't forget that there will be tax selling at the end of the year, so temper your decisions on that fact, as we all know that overall market conditions can wield great powers regardless of the performance of individual stocks.
<<Bottom line....the only thing consistent about GT is disappointment. Where is all the money going? On second thought, don't answer that....I don't want to know.>>
I am a warrior of truth. ;) Therefore, I must answer your question, Scot.
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All the money went into my Dukette campaign. Marketing ain't cheap, you know. And neither is the Dukette. LOL! :)
Take care, and repeat after me, "Whatever..." ;)
xoxo,
V. |
