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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: cody andre who wrote ()1/7/1997 7:46:00 PM
From: Dick Ross   of 13594
 
You are missing the big picture. AOL is the premier franchise on the internet right now. Its' brand recognition and superior content are the primary reasons why AOL is the World's largest internet online service provider. It appears that the recent move to a flat fee prcing scheme has worked extremely well for AOL as illustrated by the more than 1 million subsrcibers they have added since December 1. Yes, 1 million subscribers in 30 days.

A recent Computerworld article stated that the number of U.S. households online will grow from 15 million to 38.2 million by the year 2000. That's 23 million new subscribers. My guess is that AOL will snare at least 25% of these subscribers, almost 10 million.

More importantly, the number of online households worldwide will grow from 32 million to 66 million by the year 2000. I don't know of any small time ISP that has the resources to tap into the international market. What I do know is that AOL is already a strong online presence in Europe through its agreement with Bertelsman AG, the media giant. And while we here in America are fortunate to have many ways to get online, in Europe it appears as if the choices are few and far between.

In sum, AOL will continue to dominate the domestic online services industry while expanding their presence internationally.

If you want to bet against the growth of online services around the world and the continued success of AOL, be my guest. I'll take the other side of any short sale of AOL any day of the week.

My 12 month price target on AOL is $65 a share.

Be there or be lame.
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