Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: RGinPG who wrote (31417)	11/3/1998 4:23:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Ron I share your short-term bearish outlook on this sector since I still believe we are tied to oil prices and they are currently moribund at best. I do have a problem with all the estimate decreases, especially those well into the future. I just think it's impossible to make estimate changes without also estimating where oil prices will be well into the future. My best guess would be that in the usual "cover your ass" Wall St. mentality, they are estimating future oil prices to remain close to current levels. The oil bidness is so vast and so complex with prices being affected by many different socio-economic and political factors, that future oil price estimates are nothing more than wild-ass guesses. There is also all the force majeure factors like hurricanes and La Nina winters. If an Arctic storm sweeps down thru the upper Midwest, watch oil spike and everyone talking about the La Nina effect. I prefer to try to read oil prices thru history and the history of the previous twenty years says that oil prices have spent a small percentage of that time below $15.00. If oil climbs to historical levels by next spring, watch those estimates move up rather than down. John

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