Kemble - hi again! re: ADSL and cable modems.
This is going to get interesting - in fact, if you're interested in the more technical aspects of what are called "last mile technologies" we even have an active thread here at SI to talk about them.
There are two, IMO, VERY important issues that we have some guesses about but yet to see clearcut answers for:
One - the wire out there. Ubiquity for access leans toward phone lines instead of cable, because historically we cross-subsidized residential and small business deployments of individual phone lines to achieve the goal of "universal" service; everyone, well almost, "deserved" basic phone service. Technology has been around for many years that would put data over the phone lines at the same time as a voice call (it's known as DOV or DUV). Problem - the application. Unless you needed a link for a terminal (pre-internet, mind you) to a computer, it had limited consumer value - as in, no broad-based demand (application).
Along comes the internet. Along come faster computers. Here come the applications; we have reached critical mass - applications demand more bandwidth which is being accommodated by newer technologies. Amazing - now that the applications seem to be there, another pathway can be exploited if the cable companies deploy bi-directional technology.
Issue two - deployment costs - how much are people willing to pay? Can anyone make money or will these companies be black holes for investors.
Comes the battle ground: Money. If the local phone companies aren't smarter with ADSL-like services than they were with ISDN, they're going to get left behind in areas where the cable company can afford to deploy new equipment and bypass them - and with emerging voice over IP connectivity, it is quite possible that someone will. When they (the regulated phone companies) lose customers, universal phone service is jeopardized (at least in their opinion) and regulators are going to have a heck of a time in the coming months and years.
It's a brave new world. The AT&T/TCI merger is already causing grief and their competitors or would-be competitors are raising a stink about making them offer competitive access over their facilities; we now have the shoes on the other feet, if you will. AT&T has long been battling with the LEC's for access to the local loops!
The winners? IMO, users. BUT - we need to recognize there will be caution - many may want to avoid long-term commitments to any technology or service provider. It will be easy to be trapped, just like so many wireless customers find themselves with committed terms.
What does that mean for Dell? Today, despite the risk I just mentioned, getting the technology out there will only help boot the following program:
010 Escalation of bandwidth=need for more powerful computers.
020 More powerful computers=need for more bandwidth.
030 Goto 010
What a world!!!
Mr. K. |
