Keithsha, do you get paid to spout this stuff? Certainly you're not voluntarily proclaiming your ignorance. Are you?
Let's parse just the first few sentences:
The dying often rally and then fade as their last resources are spent.
Which resources would that be? The installed base of 40 million, or the billion dollars in cash?
Novell has been riding the underlying NetWare architecture for more than a decade.
Windows 98 still has the underlying DOS architecture. That's what, 17 years? Do you have a point in your claim?
Novell will finally have to modernize the platform...
Look, Bullsh*t walks around here. You want to find problems with Novell's stuff, that's just great, though my guess is that if you ever went into more detail, guys like ToySoldier would just hammer you. But for better or worse, people don't make buying decisions based on theoreticals. They make decisions based on what's for sale. NetWare 5 is for sale. NDS is for sale. Both have been purchased by lots of customers, including Lucent. Windows 2000 is not for sale, and one of your biggest customers, Cisco, is probably going to change its current position and offer its systems with NDS as well. When that happens, they won't officially drop you. However, since it will happen long before Windows 2000 is out, it will be the same as if they dropped you.
Profit margins yada yada yada
Unless you can show how Novell is going to go bankrupt in the next two years, it seems obvious that Novell will stay around long enough to take a major chunk of the directory market, if not most of it.
That's just the way it is. |
