The Learning Company (TLC) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : The Learning Company (TLC)

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To: paul richards who wrote (5983)	11/3/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Read Replies (1) of 6318

<<immediate short squeeze since oct 15 is now ended.>> What on earth does that mean paulie? Actually TLC DOES not expect to continue to make major acquisitions. the company does expect to continue to make small acquisitions of content and franchises. Why not? Given their distribution power they can generally sell three to five times as much as a smaller company could and develop titles at a far lower cost. You'll see with Broderbund. Broderbund's educational market share has more than doubled just in the time that TLC has owned the company. 30,000 rugrats titles for initial sale at broderbund? Try 300,000 initial sell in at TLC and the sell through has been much faster than expected. The re-orders are flying in. Now if TLC can buy part of cendant or can make another acquisition with the quality and valuation of broderbund (or mindscape, or creative wonders, or any of the others they've made in the last year or so) Godspeed! TLC has franchises that are growing, perennial bestsellers, low cost development on 8 core engines, powerful distribution and shelf space control. The more the merrier. Regarding the whisper number, there is none other than that site which is probably a plant by the shorts. I've spoken to more than 5 of the analysts in the last few weeks and while confident that the $0.37 is achievable they aren't focused on upside. Everyone will be looking closely at the balance sheet and market share. I'm sure you'll be looking at share count. I think you'll be surprised if you're expecting a share count in the 85 to 87 million range or even 92 million. I'd suggest a look at pooling of interest accounting before making observations about expected share count. It could be damaging to your "credibility." Stock prices move on incremental change. Investors will look at the following things: Is the balance sheet improving or weakening? What are the market share trends? What has happened with Broderbund? Have the market share declines been stopped? What are the metrics for market growth? How will cheap PC's impact PC penetration? Is the Company adding sustainable franchises? Is the competition stronger or weaker? Did the company meet or disappoint expectations? Will forward estimates increase or decrease? We'll find out soon. TD TD

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