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A service of Semiconductor Business News, CMP Media Inc.
Story posted 7:30 a.m. EDT/4:30 a.m. PDT, 11/3/98
Report says chip recovery
now more than seasonal uptick
By J. Robert Lineback
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- Worldwide semiconductor sales are increasing at a much stronger
rate than typically seen at this time of year, according new market data released today by IC
Insights Inc.
The research firm said the high month-to-month growth rates from July to September indicate
that the current uptick in chip sales is much more than a seasonal increase and it provides
more evidence that the next boom period has begun.
IC Insights said total chip revenues exceeded $12 billion in September, up from the recession's
low point of $8.95 billion in July. Using a three-month rolling average, the Scottsdale market
researcher concluded that semiconductor sales in September were 4.3% higher than they were
in August. During the 1990s, the average increase has been 2.3% between September and
August, according to IC Insights.
"The IC industry is currently in the embryonic stage of the next boom period," concluded
analyst Bill McClean, president of IC Insights, which drew a skeptical reaction in August when
it predicted an end to the industry's three-year slump (see Aug. 6 story). Most market
researchers and industry managers agree that chip sales have picked up since July, but many
are still waiting to see if the increase will hold through the first quarter of 1999.
IC Insights, however, is declaring that the full recovery has begun, and it is forecasting modest
sales growth in 1999 at 10%, following by 24% in 2000 and 30% in 2001.
Using a three-month rolling average, IC Insights said chip sales worldwide totaled $10.24
billion in September compared to $9.82 billion in August. IC Insights said semiconductor sales
in the Americas increased to $3.49 billion in September from $3.31 billion in August. In
Europe, sales grew to $2.37 billion in September from $2.24 billion, and Japan's chip revenues
slightly increased to $2.03 billion from $2.004 billion in August, according to the report. Chip
shipments in the Asia/Pacific region grew to $2.36 billion from $2.26 billion, said IC Insights.
Compared to a year ago, chip sales in September were lower--$10.24 billion vs. $11.83 billion
in September 1997, said the research firm. However, IC Insights said the month-to-month
comparison was more important in determining the market's performance in future.
In addition to the current increase in chip sales, IC Insights said it anticipates that concerns
about the Y2K problem--or the year 2000 software bug--will begin to have a positive impact
on electronic equipment sales beginning next year. If Y2K mandated purchases of new
electronic equipment becomes a significant factor, it will result in additional electronic
equipment and semiconductor sales increases beyond the above forecast for the year 2000 and
2001, IC Insights said. |
