Yeah, I think Iomega can have a decent turnaround. They'll return to some decent profitability. However, prices a lot higher than this would indicate expectations of growth beyond just a cost-cutting turnaround.
At this point it looks to me like Iomega does not have any particularly exciting prospects for future growth. Clik! sounds good in theory, but it may be too expensive, and it's just been delayed so long that I can't say it'll be a success. The continued lack of OEMs for it doesn't bode well either. Sure, Clik! may turn out to be a big success, but its success looks very uncertain.
Jaz will continue to shrink, and Zip doesn't seem to be going anywhere at this point. Sure, if Zips end up in most PCs, IOM could make lots of money, but Zip hasn't gained anything on that front in the last year.
The future for IOM looks like they'll become a decently profitable niche player, controlling a large part of the perpetually small removable storage market, and that's about what the stock price reflects now.
As for the irrationality of Wall Street, well, I'm not going to do my investing betting on that.
I do think these prices are much more reasonable than a month ago, and I'm happy for the shares I own still, but I'm considering selling if I continue to think IOM may not have good growth prospects.
Brendan |
