Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: RGinPG who wrote (31458)	11/4/1998 12:14:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) of 95453

Lets check those shorts.....RGinPG . ...just how low do you think they will go ? Hey; there is no ''sure-thing'' in calling this right here & now. I just think that with each passing month we get closer and closer to the very high probability of normalized crude oil prices. Winters actual demand increases and the very real ''psychological'' factor - can't be ignored either... With another Fed Cut more likely than not; especially in light of coordinated International cuts; and the flow of cash into the market - I don't see it ending here... We've made it through bad earnings & downgrades, we've made it through bad API numbers; Clinton looks more likely to NOT get removed from office - what catalysts are there for anything other than a minor breather/retracement here ? Some are calling for new lows and a total market crash - this is NOT very likely and imho; borders on being out of touch with reality here... however - a 15-25% retracement - still leaves us with a 15-25% gain since late August - with the OSX up about 40% since then. I could see 10-15% with the high flyers taken down further... but I am riding the train untill I hear the bakes screeching, or that whistle blowing... As far as shorting; why the Oilpatch ? Risk vs. reward-wise - certainly much, much better candidates in the overall marketplace imho ? I don't understand shorting near bottoms and buying in on momenteum near tops ? There are plays on the Dollar/Yen, High value/PE plays; the Internet-Tech valuation/earnings ''insanity'' etc... The breadth of this rally and coming Fed Cut again is ominous for shorts - I'd at least wait untill after the Fed Cuts - and then - perhaps short into the Rally for the overvalued stocks; on second thought - I wouldn't even do that...<VBG>. Is the actual conservative play - to be about 1/3 - 1/2 invested here (instead of shorting) at this level and the rest in cash; either average down on a selloff or buy on the way up with the momenteum when fundamentals return... - but, then again; when fundamentals return; no such thing as cheap Oilpatch stocks ! good luck

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