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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 155.15+2.1%Nov 26 3:59 PM EST
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To: C_Johnson who wrote (1295)1/8/1997 1:42:00 AM
From: Cary Salsberg   of 10921
 
Carl,

In today's TechWeb article you write "In sum, we tend to agree with the pundits who say the equipment business has hit bottom but we are not as enthusiastic about the current upturn."

Above you write "... most of the equipment companies are undergoing some pretty tough times. Now I would not rule out the possibility of another downleg."

I find these statements contradictory and at the crux of our disagreement. First you say the bottom has been hit, then you infer but don't predict another downleg.

I have been bullish on the semi-equips because I believe their prices discounted a more severe downturn than we have seen and that the bottom has been reached. I believe the market has been less concerned with the speed of the recovery than with relief at gaining visibility about the bottom. Both the market and I reacted to the AMAT guidance one way and you another.

I have stated clearly in all my posts that I accept the AMAT guidance and that my risk is that they may be wrong. You obviously disagree with the AMAT guidance, but you have not said so unequivocally. In fact your hedging results in the kinds of contradictory posts quoted above. I accept that you are an expert and that you might be far less eager than I to accept AMAT guidance. I have in the past and would like to continue to depend on your expertise, but it is difficult when you stand against AMAT management's unequivocal statements about future bookings and equivocate.

Cary
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