Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe

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To: Rob Shilling who wrote (791)	11/4/1998 1:46:00 PM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (2) of 1301

Rob, until a clearer picture emerges on russia's near-term future I would advise all to keep their money on the sidelines. Yes, stock markets are supposed to factor in news, but it doesn't happen on a broad scale, only on a segmented one. Ex. if Intel reports poor earnings, all chipmakers dive. If todays gold contract jumps $5, it'll be factored in immediately, but nothing is factored in to the entire market efficiently. Just look at the soaring japanese stocks - the banks may have reason to rally but the exporters don't, not with the yen being 20% stronger than a month ago. Nonetheless, Hitachi is up 10 points this week, and it warned of its worst results in company history. So the 'factored in' stuff is baloney. Why put money in a country with an unstable currency? The risk is far greater than the reward.

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