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Technology Stocks : Forecross Corporation : Y/2000
FRXX 0.000400+100.0%Mar 7 3:00 PM EST

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To: Mark Jurik who wrote (1485)11/4/1998 8:49:00 PM
From: Rick Voteau   of 1654
 
Mark, let me give this a try

1. Assumes that all Y2K factories are alike i.e. no product differentiation. Absence of differentiation means you compete on price. I believe Forecross's product is better.

2. I believe that many companies are lying about how far they are on Y2K conversion. The rush will come soon and conversion will be in vogue. I agree that the rush has not materialized.

3. Primary contractors know that Y2K conversion is not a commodity so they aren't going to get competing bids. Also, they won't take the time. They want a high quality sole supplier that they can above all trust. that's why EDS, BDM etc. have went with Forecross.

4. Agree with first part. I think that advertising won't do much either way. Relationships usually sell. My understanding is that the Heads of the distributorships have some great relationships that will hopefully result in meaningful business.

5 and summary. It depends on the amount of risk you want to take. I chose to take high risk so I put money on conversion factories because I felt that is where the higher returns will be. Short term I have been wrong. High risk means high volatility (at least that is what I learned in business school.) It also means you can lose.

Other: Many GM's and CEO's and government leaders are gonna wait til 1999 before they will believe their IT folks who tell them we can't go through millions of lines of code manually.

Question remains how much will Forecross get.

You say not much and I say they are gonna bag at least one elephant. One is all it takes. That's why I stay in.

Lastly, I expect a jump in price after moving from VSE. If nothing else market makers will maniulate it a bit IMO. Low float stocks are a market makers dream

Lastly, lastly, you shouldn't stay up so late writing notes.


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