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Gold/Mining/Energy : ARP - V Argentina Gold

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To: Elizabeth Andrews who wrote (1073)11/4/1998 10:58:00 PM
From: Elizabeth Andrews  Read Replies (3) of 3282
 
Bill, for what it's worth here is where I believe we are at on ARP.

Shares Issued 38.5 million
Price $3.15
Market cap $121.5 million
Property Interest 60%
Property Market Cap $202 million
Estimated Tonnes 18 to 20 million metric tonnes
Average Gold Grade 2.16 grams per tonne (six holes)
Average Silver Grade 50.9 grams per tonne
Contained Gold 1.280 million ounces
Contained Silver 30.2 million ounces
Current in Situ value US$575 million
Deposit type Probably an acid sulphate system
Host Rocks Probably quartz monzonites, porphyryr, tuffs
Alteration Silicification, quartz alunite
Geophysics Shows resistivity but not all resistive rocks have economic quantities of gold
Comments
Obviously, based on the widths, this is a large gold bearing system. There is a deposit that Barrick owns a 90% interest in called the Pascua deposit. It is about 20 km to the NW. Pascua has a geologic resource of 175 million tonnes that grades about 2 grams gold and 59 grams silver per tonne, clearly a very similar grade. Barrick is planning on mining Pascua. It is a US$825 million development which will mill about 33,500 tonnes per day and produce about 800,000 ounces of gold per year. The top part of the deposit is oxidized but it will be milled not leached. Metallurgy is not discussed.

Clearly, the ARP deposit has to get a lot bigger to support its current market cap. Hole 87 and other holes to the south of 85 are now very important.

Best Case----The geophysical anomaly (CSAMT Resistivity) published by the company has a maximum size of 775m by 350m in plan. If the drill intervals average 160 meters thick then the zone can contain about 100 million tonnes. If the grade averages 2 gms and 50 grams of silver the depposit could contain 6.4 million oz Au and 163 million oz Ag. Holes 79, 81 and 83 appear to be very low grade and probably eliminate 25% of the potential deposit. This is also the widest part of the geophysical anomaly so about 50% of the deposit may be very low grade.

My Conclusion. The property is a teaser. It may end up at 45 million tonnes grading 2 grams or about 4 million oz of Au equivalent. At current prices not economic (?).
The speculator today is paying about US$70 per ounce in-situ.

Salvation----Barrick hold 40% and Pascua is not far away. Once that infrastructure is paid off this may make sense for Barrick to develop. Who was speculating on the bidding war?
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