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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: Mark Johnson who wrote (4682)11/5/1998 12:29:00 AM
From: Peter Haynes  Read Replies (5) of 27311
 
The problem with FMK's wisdom is that you can go back to posts from October of last year and see the exact same messages that he is posting today -- overly optimistic profit calculations based on line capacities, analyst visits Real Soon Now, "My sources say...". I skip his messages almost as fast as the ones from the all-caps crowd, and read the more realistic posts.

I seem to remember some of the more realistic posts saying that oem testing, if it began in September would run at least until November/December. Then it would take time for them to design and test the products to accept the VLNC battery.

I would be overjoyed if the conference call includes contract announcements. I, for one, am still underwater on this stock. I think a more realistic expectation is that they want to explain the quarterly numbers -- which are likely to be ugly. Since they are actually producing batteries in the hundreds per day (maybe thousands), they will have cost of production without any revenue. They will also be carrying the cost to warehouse the batteries until they can make a sale.

I think there will be a run up to around $7 before the CC. I expect that the CC will tell us nothing new -- they will reassure us that analysts are coming Real Soon Now, and we're negotiating with oems. Up on rumor, down on news -- back to the $3's.

That's my best guess based on the company's past record, and the most realistic sounding estimates of the timeframes involved.

Pete
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