I don't know any of the people you have mentioned. I presume, however, that if I were Newmont and I wanted to accumulate 9.9% of ARP before making the bid to take it all at a higher price, I wouldn't do all my buying through 82.
However, if I were running a market on ARP and I wanted to make the buying look very powerful I would place all the buy orders through one house, 82 in this case, while selling smaller positions through several other houses, making sure I was a net seller because I had all the information and I controlled the game. It may be more instructive for you to look at houses who have been net sellers, but not obvious sellers, and not houses that were not continually net buyers prior to the run in ARP. I'm not suggesting anything manipulative here, it's just that the activity of house 82 is nothing to base an opinion of the value of this property. VSE promoters are clever people and studying the trading activity will, I believe, offer few clues as to what is really going on. 82 does not have to be a jitney house for the account that bought all the stock there to be a net seller elsewhere.
I'm not suggesting that you buy or short the stock. I'm only posting what I've calculated based on what the company has published. I've already made up my mind what to do and I'm not trying to influence anyone, especially someone like you who has inside contacts. Did your contact at RBS tell you that Newmont was buying ARP?
I, think, based on the sentiment that is attached to your post that you should do some work and learn about the economics of deposits.
AQP, by the way, was a David Lowell idea and not C. McLeod. |
