Gersh: I think critter-power was clearly displayed in the INDU, INX, and OEX vs. the SOX, TRAN, RUT, OSX, etc. We seem to have two clearly defined markets. The large indices fed by fund money and the smaller indices, fed by funds too, but used by retail investors who invest their own money. These distinctions are not exact but I think they display the picture that I see.
Unless the spigot is turned-off some way, my best guess is that we are coming out of bear markets in the smaller indices and severe corrections in the major indices. On the other hand, we could be in the first reversal of the first leg down of a bear market in the major indices. If that is the case, then the smaller indices might bounce around between their lows and the lower third of their range until the majors pull out of a bear market. However, there would need to be a resting place for all the available money. That is what clouds the picture for a bear market in the majors.
Our only hope is to read the markets correctly and make the right play. |
