Holts Cigar (HOLT) Message Board

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Non-Tech : Holts Cigar (HOLT)

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To: Boyd Hinds who wrote (24)	11/5/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: Boyd Hinds	of 25

Earnings were released yesterday: biz.yahoo.com My summary of the good and bad: Good: 1) Sales were up 17% in a difficult environment. 2) EPS were .20 (4 cents above the Yahoo analyst estimate) Bad: 1) Margins down. 2) Dilution from IPO continues to hurt EPS comparisons. 3) Retail division is dragging down net earnings with higher than expected expenses. Summary: I think the stock is fairly valued at a range of $6.80 - $7.20. I base that on the following calculations and assumptions: EPS for this fiscal year (1998-8) will be in a range of .68-.72 This is my estimate based on slower to flat net earnings growth and stock dilutions that should drag down net EPS by about 15 - 20% this year. Assign a conservative forward PE of 10, and you get the target price range. My average cost in this stock is about $4.50 I started buying at 6.50 and averaged down when the stock went below $4.00/share. The Prudential analyst upgrade did a lot to increase interest in this small company, but the stock run up has probably exhausted itself here. I will be looking to take some profits off the table soon.

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